Let’s be real—2025 is testing marketing leaders’ ability to act, specifically using forecasting models to help allocate their budgets. Customer behaviors are unpredictable, earnings signals are murky, market dynamics are shifting mid-quarter, and even well-established brands—think GM, Ford, PepsiCo—are pumping the brakes on long-term guidance. Doubts are cast over marketing forecasts. And for marketing leaders and their business stakeholders, that uncertainty flows straight into their decision-making process: campaign plans stall, budget guardrails narrow, all the while expectations remain sky-high.
Retailers like Target and Walmart straddle both sides of the value equation. Business leaders need to manage tariffs without alienating price-sensitive shoppers. All brands feel this tension: make bold moves that are distinct from the competition, but don’t overextend. And in a landscape where short-termism reigns, business leaders are left asking: how do we stay relevant and top of mind, without becoming reactive and reliant on coupons, price reductions, and brand oversaturation?
This is where scenario planning comes in. It’s a practical survival skill for data-driven business leaders. Done right, it helps marketing teams pressure-test strategies, surface hidden risks and quantify tradeoffs, and build the muscle to pivot without blowing up performance. Long-term thinking isn’t a luxury; it’s the foundation of resilience.
What the Data Tells Us: Long-term Scenario Planning Is Key to Business Growth
In volatile economic conditions, lasting success relies on a solid long-term strategy rather than quick wins. Analytic Partners’ ROI Genome®, with over 25 years of brand and performance data, shows that brands with a strategic outlook beyond immediate gains tend to succeed more during uncertain times. Our data reveals that brands investing in upper-funnel strategies (i.e., often longer-term brand building) outperform lower-funnel tactics (i.e., often digital performance marketing) by 60%. In addition, companies using advanced measurement and Commercial Analytics reallocate budgets 2–3 times more effectively than those with basic methods.
Scenario planning can further accelerate these insights by helping brands build future forecasts, make informed decisions, and sustain growth without jeopardizing forecasts or budgets. Investing in upper-funnel activities, advanced measurement, and scenario planning yields substantial returns. The key takeaway: In times of volatility, don’t pursue volatile short-term metrics; a strategic approach boosts resilience and growth.