Performance marketing, with its perception of easily tracked results, is appealing and reflects a broader instinct to focus on immediate, short-term results. During difficult economic conditions, this is amplified by an even stronger need than usual to identify and quantify whatever impact can be provided immediately. However, by its nature, performance marketing has only a very short-term effect which is almost always over-emphasised and overstated. Metrics such as last click and simplistic attribution models, usually used to measure the outcome of performance marketing, are very binary tools that don’t take the impact of other marketing and non-marketing factors into account. In fact, the concept of incrementality isn’t factored in at all in these cases.
Instead, there’s a common assumption that any increase in clicks or search during a performance marketing campaign reflects simple cause and effect, encouraging marketers to celebrate performance marketing as a sales driver.
The reality is very different. Our research shows that 30% of paid search for example is driven by, and directly attributable to, other forms of brand and upper funnel marketing, with another 30-60% driven by non-marketing factors such as seasonality, loyalty, or category trends. This means that last click and simplistic attribution metrics overstate the role of clickable activities by 2-10x, on average, and understate the role of non-clickable or non-user-level activities (e.g. video) by just as much or more.
Which means spikes in clicks and conversions may be the result of specific performance marketing campaigns, but these are impacting the timing of a purchase, not the core decision-making and have much less of an incremental effect on a brand’s success. Correlation between performance marketing and purchase may be high, but it is in fact other factors that are driving the commitment to purchase.
A recent example of the impact of increased brand spend